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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."